Finally got everything done on my to-do list for the Mrs. today. Could spend some time with the new bike and was inspired by your videos. Feel bad its been sitting in the garage gathering (saw) dust for weeks.
Anyway - in case it helps someone else - here's my impression of removing the backwheel to inspect the splines.
Absolutely get a wooden plank under the center stand, give you that extra clearance to remove the back wheel. In my case I used a old 2x12. Couldn't for the life of me get the stand to engage on top of that at first, felt like I was trying to lift the back of the bike. The solution was to first roll the back tire up on top of another 2x12. Then pop the bike up onto the centerstand. Once up on the stand you can easily remove the second 2x12 that was under the back tire. Doing it this way you're not lifting the back of the bike that extra 2 inches. Lastly attach a ratchet strap to the front wheel and hook that to the center stand. Working on this alone you don't want the 500lb beast falling over.
Next undo all the bolts for the shocks. Pull both shocks off. Keep in mind where all the nuts and washers are. I bagged everything up into plastic ziplock bags I had laying around the garage. Labeled everything with blue painters tape just in case. Jammed a 4x4 scrap under the backwheel during this process so it doesn't suddenly drop the swingarm when you get the shocks off.
Undo the bolts for the rear brake actuator rod and the rear brake pivot arm. Again bag these up.
The real challenge was getting the axle bolt off. Its a castle nut with a stout cotter pin. Got the pin out easy. Socket on the breaker bar, step on the bar. It just turned the axle in the frame and didn't actually loosen the bolt. Tried one hand on the breaker bar and the other hand on a wrench on the axle itself (meanwhile gripping the tire between my knees). No luck there, and pulled a muscle from this whole goofy stance.
Finally - put a 17mm wrench on the axle (right side) of the bike, and jammed a soft scrap of wood between the wrench and the lower right shock mount. So now turning the castle nut might still turn the whole axle but the other side axle will be jammed in place. Step on the breaker bar again and it pops the nut loose. Phew. Tough work without an extra set of hands.
Here's the moment of truth. Bike was so cheap that if I opened this up and saw ground down spline teeth, might not be worth fixing. Roll the rear wheel out and see
plenty of grease on the splines. Not sure if this is moly - it looks a lot like Park Bike tools PolyLube. Better than nothing. I have a little jug of Loctite LB 8012 (Formerly known as Loctite Moly Paste) - wondering if this would be the right kind of grease for these splines. "Contains 65% molybdenum disulfide". Or maybe just leave what's on there? Bike is from 2002 so at some point an owner in the past put some work into this maintenance.
Also found hair inside the final drive, and a dead spider and some webbing. Teeth all look good though. Pulling the final drive was a bit of a challenge - the four 12mm bolts that hold it on are a little tough to get a socket around due to the thickness of the swingarm. Best to use a socket though, I tried an open wrench and it slid a little - don't want to round these off.
At this point I haven't pulled the shaft out, wondering if I should do that and check the grease situation up under the boot.
So back wheel is off and should probably get a new tire. Nice Metzeler but 2011 manufacture date, and tire doesn't seem to have any yield or stickness left. Maybe the mechanics shop will give me a discount if I just bring the wheels themselves in.
Once again many thanks to this forum for making all this possible. I probably wouldn't have had the confidence otherwise.